What Dealmakers Should Consider for 2026 (Part 1 of 2)

The year 2026 isn’t just another year. It will be the moment when several major forces converge: AI’s rapid acceleration from experimental to operational, interest rates stabilizing enough to support enhanced deal activity, and increasing regulatory certainty with improved corporate liquidity. For dealmakers and corporate leaders, this combination creates both opportunity and risk. The year rewards speed, foresight, and the ability to demonstrate real AI impact rather than just adoption theater.

The macro environment entering 2026 looks fundamentally different from the recent past. US corporate M&A activity is expected to wrap 2025 up 10% and see another 3% growth in 2026, driven by improving financing conditions, strong corporate balance sheets, and rising CEO confidence. But we need to understand the underlying dynamics more than just report the headline numbers.

AI adoption is accelerating across enterprises. Companies aren’t running pilots anymore. They’re deploying AI into production workflows, measuring impact, and making it core to operations. Interest rate normalization is finally happening, though not in the dramatic fashion many predicted. Supply chains are being redesigned, and geopolitical fragmentation continues to reshape where and how companies operate. Dealmakers need strategies that account for ongoing volatility rather than waiting for stability that isn’t coming.

Global markets are transitioning structurally. We have relatively stable macro conditions, rising liquidity as capital finds its way back into deals, and increasing regulatory complexity that makes execution harder even as opportunity expands. Success in this environment favors preparedness, optionality, and the ability to move fast when windows open.

M&A in a Normalizing Rate Environment

Analysts predict strong, transformative M&A growth in 2026, driven by technology and resilient balance sheets. As rates stabilize, corporate roll-up strategies, bolt-on acquisitions, and infrastructure investments will dominate deal activity. The megadeal surge from 2025 will continue, but smaller strategic acquisitions will create value more reliably for most buyers.

High-demand M&A categories will include AI infrastructure, data-rich businesses, robotics, logistics automation, and compute capacity. Acquirers are paying premiums for capabilities that solve genuine bottlenecks rather than nice-to-have features. If your target company controls scarce resources like specialized talent, proprietary data, or hard-to-replicate technology, expect competitive processes and stretched valuations.

The exit environment is improving significantly. Private equity exits reached a three-year high as firms seize opportunities to turn strategic value creation into realized returns. The IPO market is reopening for quality assets, creating optionality for sellers who can credibly demonstrate operational rigor and growth trajectories.

Companies that spent 2023 and 2024 building operational strength are positioned to exit at favorable valuations. Those that deferred hard decisions, hoping markets would bail them out, are running out of runway. Investors increasingly prefer companies with demonstrated operational excellence over pure growth stories.

Capital Sourcing Beyond Traditional Banks

Private credit and fintech platforms will continue to reduce reliance on traditional bank financing. Partners are demanding faster deployment, measurable returns, and ESG compliance that goes beyond checkbox exercises. Family offices and sovereign wealth funds will continue to pursue direct deals, joint ventures, and creative structures that bypass traditional fund models entirely.

Minority stakes, strategic partnerships, and revenue-sharing deals are gaining traction as alternatives to outright acquisitions. These structures provide flexibility for both buyers and sellers while aligning incentives more directly than traditional M&A. Expect more creative deal structures in 2026 as parties optimize for speed and reduced execution risk.

The capital is available. The question is whether dealmakers can structure transactions that meet the more stringent requirements partners and direct investors are imposing. Speed matters, but so does demonstrating clear paths to value creation and exit.

Scarcity in Compute, Talent, and Energy

Access to AI compute is now considered a strategic resource that will drive M&A activity in data centers, semiconductor companies, and power infrastructure. Access to compute capacity isn’t just a technology question anymore. It offers companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google the ability to create a competitive moat. Companies without reliable compute access can’t deploy AI at scale, which increasingly means they can’t compete.

Talent shortages continue to persist across AI engineering, cybersecurity, and data operations roles. Acqui-hires targeting specialized teams are common, with buyers paying premiums for talent they can’t recruit through traditional hiring. The war for AI talent will continue to intensify throughout 2026, not ease.

Energy reliability is affecting M&A location decisions in ways that seemed unthinkable five years ago. Rising energy costs and grid constraints are limiting where companies can expand data center operations. Analysts note that OpenAI may eventually require 20% of US electricity by 2033 without any changes, while China’s massive solar production capacity is reshaping global energy dynamics.

Dealmakers need to evaluate targets not just on current operations but on their ability to secure compute, talent, and energy access going forward. Those three constraints will determine which companies can scale AI ambitions and which will hit ceilings.

Regulatory Pressure Creates Execution Risk

Antitrust scrutiny is rising, particularly around tech and AI consolidation. The reforms introduce a mandatory notification regime with suspensory effect and lower filing thresholds, which will capture these types of acquisitions in multiple jurisdictions. Cross-border approvals are increasingly shaped by national security considerations and ESG compliance requirements that go far beyond traditional regulatory review.

Expect longer review cycles and more detailed documentation requirements. Deals that would have closed in six months now take twelve. Transactions that seemed straightforward from a commercial perspective face regulatory obstacles based on data sovereignty, national security, or competition concerns that weren’t material five years ago.

Investors are placing premiums on ESG-compliant assets, with some estimates suggesting a 55% premium for companies demonstrating genuine compliance rather than performative reporting. This isn’t ideological. It’s risk management. Regulatory enforcement is intensifying, and companies with weak ESG frameworks face material risks that affect valuations.

Volatility Requires Better Sensing Capabilities

Geopolitics, AI export controls, and supply chain shifts create ongoing turbulence that won’t resolve into neat stability. Companies need rapid sensing capabilities, including market intelligence that updates continuously, AI-driven forecasting that incorporates multiple scenarios, and real-time monitoring of competitive moves and regulatory changes.

Traditional annual planning cycles don’t work anymore. The pace of change demands continuous reassessment and the ability to pivot quickly when conditions shift. This isn’t about abandoning strategy but building strategies with enough flexibility to adapt as facts change.

Three imperatives define success in this environment: invest aggressively in AI and data quality so you can move fast when opportunities arise; adopt proactive deal sourcing using AI deal sourcing platforms rather than waiting for bankers to bring opportunities; and embrace creative deal structures that reduce execution risk and accelerate timelines.

Success in 2026 requires operational modernization, AI-enabled execution, and disciplined capital allocation. Companies that spent recent years building genuine operational capabilities will capture more value.

How to unlock outsized value in 2026? Contact us to get started, and watch out for Part 2 of “What Dealmakers Should Consider for 2026”.